Why the next M&A cycle may be built, not bought. Why it matters!

For many founders, M&A feels like a distant endgame—something to think about once the business has reached sufficient scale.

But the latest 2026 Global M&A Outlook from Goldman Sachs points towards a different dynamic. The next deal cycle is likely to be shaped not simply by scale, but by the strategic capabilities that companies need to compete in a rapidly changing environment.

That distinction matters.

The businesses attracting strategic interest may not always be the largest. Increasingly, they may be those building capabilities that larger organisations suddenly realise they cannot develop quickly enough themselves.

This also echoes something we noted recently in The Venture Chill Is Over — But Only for the Best: capital is becoming increasingly selective, concentrating around category leadership, strategic infrastructure and businesses with genuine competitive advantage.

We are beginning to see the same logic play out in M&A.

The return of strategic M&A

Following the slowdown that came after the post-pandemic deal boom, M&A activity began accelerating again during 2025. Goldman Sachs points to improving financing conditions, greater valuation stability and renewed confidence among corporate leaders as supportive factors.

But the more interesting question is not simply whether deal volumes recover. It is why companies are acquiring.

The next phase of M&A is increasingly about strategic repositioning. Businesses are adapting to AI-driven disruption, major investment in energy and infrastructure, supply-chain realignment and the growing importance of data and digital capabilities.

In that environment, buyers are not simply acquiring revenue.

They are acquiring capability.

AI is creating a domino effect

One of the most significant themes is that AI should not be viewed as a standalone sector. It is a catalyst reshaping investment decisions across multiple industries simultaneously.

The effects extend well beyond software. AI adoption is driving investment across semiconductors, data centres, power and energy infrastructure, real estate and digital networks. The enormous capital commitments being made by hyperscalers are creating second-order opportunities throughout the technology and infrastructure stack.

For founders, this creates an important dynamic.

The next strategic acquisition target does not necessarily have to be the company building the AI model. It could be the data layer, workflow platform, specialist technology, infrastructure or operational capability that allows AI to be deployed effectively at scale.

Some of the most interesting M&A opportunities may therefore emerge one or two steps removed from the technology attracting the headlines.

Strategic optionality matters

Another important theme is the desire of larger companies to maintain multiple strategic paths as technology and markets evolve.

Building every new capability internally takes time. It requires people, expertise, investment and execution risk. Acquisitions can provide a way to compress that timeline.

That changes the calculus of value creation for founders.

A relatively small company can have disproportionate strategic value if it gives a buyer something that would otherwise be difficult or slow to build: access to a new market, specialist technology, proprietary data, customer relationships, talent or an established position within an emerging category.

The question is therefore not simply how large is the business?

It is also what does owning this business allow the buyer to do?

Timing still matters

M&A has always been cyclical, but periods of rapid technological change create a particular tension for corporate buyers.

Large organisations may have significant capital available while simultaneously facing uncertainty about where technology is heading and which capabilities will ultimately matter.

Waiting provides clarity, but it can also increase the risk of falling behind. Building internally can preserve control, but may take too long. Acquiring a proven capability can therefore become the fastest route to strategic relevance.

That creates opportunities for founders who happen to be building in the right place at the right time.

But timing alone is not enough. The strongest strategic assets combine relevance with defensibility: technology, intellectual property, data, customer relationships or operating capabilities that cannot easily be replicated once their importance becomes obvious.

What this means for founders

For founders building businesses today, there is a simple implication.

A company does not necessarily need to become enormous before it becomes strategically valuable.

If it solves a problem that becomes strategically important to a larger organisation, its relevance can increase much earlier than conventional measures of scale might suggest.

That does not mean founders should build businesses simply to be acquired. But understanding where strategic value could emerge can influence decisions around product development, partnerships, customers, intellectual property and market positioning.

So rather than asking:

“Will someone acquire us one day?”

A more useful question may be:

“What could we build that becomes strategically difficult for someone else to operate without?”

That is where the M&A conversation becomes more interesting.

Because the transition from an interesting company to a strategic asset is not always about getting bigger.

Sometimes it is about becoming increasingly important to the right buyer.